Opinion: Big changes are coming

[Детективное агентство ИКС-Инфо.]

In a dispute over missile defense waged by Russia and NATO, Ukraine found itself between two fires. Roman Gorbik, an employee of the World Politics Institute, writes about the long-term impact of missile defense on Ukrainian politics and Ukrainian politics on missile defense in his blog on Focus.ua.
The attempts of the EU leaders to save the euro have perhaps taken the main place in the news picture of the world last week. Meanwhile, almost simultaneously with the summit of the heads of state of the EU member states, another event was taking place in Brussels that has direct consequences for Ukrainian security. This is a meeting of NATO foreign ministers on December 7-8 at the headquarters of the Alliance.
Where potential concessions are concerned, the Kremlin defends its interests very harshly and, as a rule, seeks its own.
The NATO foreign ministers discussed the issues that shape the agenda for Chicago: what to do with Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the international contingent scheduled for 2014, where the “Arab spring” will go after Libya, and how to stabilize the recent turbulent situation in Kosovo.
Ukraine is interested in many of these issues. However, after the question of the accession of Kiev to the North Atlantic security system was closed for long or forever, these issues are of secondary importance. It is not surprising that Ukraine was not remembered in the final declaration of the summit - however, like Georgia, which even hopes to receive a MAP in Chicago.
But Moscow has confirmed its position among NATO priorities. It is known that Russia has the most intensive partnership with the Alliance. However, the Kremlin only cooperates where it is directly beneficial to him or not at all very important - stabilization of Afghanistan, the fight against piracy and drug transit. Where potential concessions are concerned, the Kremlin defends its interests very harshly and, as a rule, seeks its own. A vivid example is missile defense, one of the central themes of the summit.

This is not the first year that NATO has been offering Russia to create either a common missile defense system, or two integrated systems connected by information exchange, joint exercises, and so on. Russia is trying to capitalize on this by blocking the real prospects for cooperation, while at the same time continuing to “keep the door open”, it is preventing NATO from engaging in missile defense without looking at the Kremlin.

In anticipation of the election, Moscow headed for confrontation. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev made harsh statements and opened a radar near Kaliningrad. The Russians promise to deploy new S-400 missile systems there before the end of the year.

Has the current summit changed anything in this trend? First, it became obvious that the Alliance was still ready to make concessions. Until the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in 2014, he could not afford a confrontation with Russia, which now depends on transport corridors. The situation is aggravated by instability in the Middle East, and the possible sharp rise in price of oil, and with it gas, and the difficult financial situation in Europe.
There is also a personal dimension.
As you heard on the sidelines of the summit, NATO Secretary General Anders Rasmussen is an ambitious person who sees the possibilities of his career in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as a whole exhausted and wants to leave - probably to European structures - in a major chord. This can only be the agreed position of Russia and NATO on missile defense at the Chicago Summit in May 2012. We are ready to go towards the Kremlin within reason of both the USA and, probably, Western Europe. Only the Eastern European members of the Alliance restrain from unnecessary concessions. At the same time, Russia is clearly playing a drag on time and is trying to put pressure on the Alliance. Rasmussen tried to convince the Russians, as part of the Russia-NATO Council meeting, that they, too, should be more accommodating. In fact, it was a good reason to take a few steps to a compromise on the eve of Chicago.

Kiev is waiting for larger predators to agree among themselves.

But the chief of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergei Lavrov, made it clear in Brussels that Russia was not going to yield if Eastern Europe was not put under the shield of its missile defense. “Indivisible security is not a menu from which you can choose your favorite dish and refuse what you don’t want. This is not the approach that can be applied here, ”Lavrov said. Although, frankly, this is exactly the approach Russia sins.

No wonder the chief of the Russian general staff Nikolai Makarov made a statement on December 7, in which he once again scared the West with missiles and conflicts in the region. So - the mission of Rasmussen has not yet succeeded.

What remains to Ukraine in this situation? More and more - the role of the instrument in the East European concert, which Russia and the West cannot play in any way. Kiev is waiting for larger predators to agree among themselves. In November, the Institute of World Politics held the First Ukraine-Russia-NATO Forum in Kiev, where domestic, European and Russian experts discussed the prospects of a non-confrontational partnership between the three parties. During the discussion, it became apparent that in the conditions of the courtship of the West for the Kremlin, Ukraine can find its place in security only with the consent of two other forces. On the other hand, the lack of consensus between them does not give Ukraine space to search for this place.

It may be too early to discard Ukraine, both in a three- and two-sided format. Ukrainian diplomats did not deny that information exchange between Kiev and Brussels on missile defense is ongoing. Although, as emphasized in conversation with journalists and experts, the Ukrainian ambassador to Belgium, Igor Dolgov, "is nothing more than an exchange of information." But this is already important in the current conditions. And in Kiev, there are rumors that the government is trying to use the participation of Crimean radars in missile defense as a lever of pressure in gas negotiations with Russia. Nevertheless, this is too obvious a bluff: in the next two to three years, the West will simply not be ready to accept such an offer.

It would be possible to predict that the three of Lenin’s tango will last several years. Even more - you can talk about the date when events begin to develop more dynamically.

In 2014, NATO will leave Afghanistan, and Russia will hold the Olympics in Sochi; Thus, both parties will untie their hands for active action in the Black Sea region. By this time, the resource for delaying time and negotiations on missile defense will be largely exhausted. Elections in Ukraine in 2015 will most likely become conflicting and revitalize the political landscape in neighboring countries.

The game will return to the region in 2015 in a big way.

[DLMURL] https://focus.ua/opinion/211258/ [/ DLMURL]

 

[Евгений СБ]

Thank. Interesting.